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National And Act On The Up, Others In Slow Decline

Contributor:
Fuseworks Media
Fuseworks Media

Polls are shoring up the view that political allies National and ACT will go into the election campaign holding a winning hand.

National and ACT are the only parties polling higher now than they were six weeks ago, a pointer voters are cautiously moving their way.

The NZPA rolling poll -- the average of the last six published polls -- shows support for National running at 50.8 percent, and that for ACT at 1.6 percent.

While that is only marginally higher than on August 27, when the first NZPA rolling poll was published, all other parties have seen a decline in support since that date.

This week's TV1 poll tilted the balance further toward National, which would have enough seats to govern alone if the NZPA poll was reflected in the November 8 election result.

On current polling, National would win 64 seats and ACT two.

Labour would take 44 seats, its allies the Greens seven, and the Progressive Party one -- 14 seats fewer than the National-ACT bloc.

New Zealand First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 percent of votes cast to return to Parliament.

It is at 3.0 percent on the party vote, and Tauranga electorate polling has leader Winston Peters well behind National candidate Simon Bridges.

National, Labour, United Future and ACT launch their election campaigns this weekend.

The NZPA rolling poll allocated the Maori Party six seats -- based on current polls in the Maori electorate seats -- and United Future just one.

The Greens, on 5.6 percent, are the only minor party above the 5 percent threshold that has to be crossed for a party to hold seats without winning an electorate.

NZPA rolling poll (with seats in brackets)*

Oct 8 Sept 24 Sept 10 Aug 27

Labour 35.0 (44) 36.1 (45) 36.2 (46) 34.4 (43)

National 50.8 (64) 49.2 (62) 49.3 (62) 50.7 (64)

NZ First 3.0 (0) 2.9 (0) 3.3 (0) 4.0 (0)

ACT 1.6 (2) 1.7 (2) 1.5 (2) 1.3 (2)

Greens 5.6 (7) 5.9 (7) 5.7 (7) 5.8 (7)

United Future 0.2 (1) 0.4 (1) 0.3 (1) 0.4 (1)

Maori Party 2.1 (6) 2.5 (6) 2.6 (6) 2.5 (6)

Progressives 0.0 (1) 0.0 (1) 0.0 (1) 0.0 (1)

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