David Carter

Wellington, Jan 14 NZPA - The Government has promised support for rural communities if the big "dry" now under way on the east coasts of both islands turns into an official drought.

Agriculture Minister David Carter said today that recent rain had alleviated conditions in some regions, but high risk areas would still be monitored closely.

"We have now established very good rural support systems throughout New Zealand," he said. "We'll be available to initiate support and advice to any farmers who find the continuing dry conditions start to impact on their own viability."

Mr Carter said while the national situation was better than it was at this time last year, he was still urging farmers in at risk areas to prepare and plan ahead.

"The situation seems to be holding and, in some areas, has improved over the past month," he said. "However, we are still keeping a close watch on North Canterbury and the east coast of the North Island."

High temperatures in North Canterbury and on the east coast of the North Island meant the low soil moisture levels there were still a cause of concern.

Last year's drought between February and July had devastating effects for farmers and the economy, Mr Carter said. It is estimated to have cost the New Zealand dairy sector $1.4 billion.

According to senior climate scientist Jim Salinger, a relatively neutral weather pattern tilted towards another La Nina cycle.

Last summer's La Nina pattern forced farmers to sell off stock, but Dr Salinger said its return did not mean the country was facing a replay of last autumn's weather.

Normal or above normal rainfall was expected in the north and east of the North Island from January to March, and below normal rainfall for much of the South Island, including Canterbury, Otago, Southland and the West Coast.

"In the east of the South Island, that's where I'd be looking," he said. The La Nina pattern is expected to last until autumn.

Another climate scientist, Andrew Tait, said at the start of summer that in many areas there was a soil moisture deficit of 30mm-50mm in the top soil layers -- which was the amount of extra rain, above normal levels, farmers would need to get back to the usual soil moisture.

Dr Tait said there were differing technical definitions of a drought, but for farmers the crucial issue would be the soil moisture levels.

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