Winston Peters will be hoping after New Zealand First's devastating electoral loss in November that he can repeat the feat of his Christian namesake and make a come back worthy of Lazarus.

This weekend the NZ First faithful will gather for a special conference in Auckland this Saturday to survey the damage and then decide on a plan for rebuilding, if that is possible. New Zealand First will want to escape the fate that befell the Alliance after its 2002 exit from Parliament. Personally speaking (as I'm an Alliance Party member) I know how difficult the journey back from being a sub one percent polling party will be.

What is counting in NZ First's favour is that it still polled 4.2% of the vote last November compared to the Alliance Party's 1.25% that it achieved upon being ousted from the House in 2002. This puts NZ First in a more favourable position when compared to the Alliance as it  (theoretically) has only to poll one percentage point more of the vote at the next election to cross the five percent MMP threshold for parliamentary re-entry. Furthermore, it is meeting early in the political year and the upcoming conference may give Winston an opportunity to make a 'state of the nation' type speech that could give him his first high level media exposure since the election.

Countermanding this is that Winston Peters looks discredited in the wake of the Owen Glenn and Vela family donation sagas. Peters's image as the conservative champion of ordinary New Zealanders whose lives are dictated to by foreign and domestic capital has been tarnished by the revelations that Peters accepted donations for his legal defence fund (and presumably the party as well) from these wealthy donors without disclosing their receipt to anybody and this non-disclosure even extended to fellow members of the NZ First caucas.

Peters's secretiveness and deviousness in these matters could well come back to haunt him, come Saturday, as the party (according to media reports) is now looking to a co-leadership model whereby the "patriarch" of the party (as NZ First President George Groombridge describes Peters) will be placed alongside a younger face who most likely could be former MP and law and order spokesperson, Ron Mark. Whether Peters, who is known for his vanity, will accept this type of arrangement remains to be seen. It maybe foisted upon him in a move by former caucus colleagues, like Mark and current deputy leader Peter Brown, who have publicly expressed their disappointment in Winston's behaviour both during and after the election campaign. Recently, this increasingly negative view of Peters on the part of some colleagues may well have been reinforced by his foot dragging over being the last former minister to hand in his ministerial self-drive car and the abuse thrown at journalists who have sought to question him over this and other matters.

Hence, the emergence of a dual leadership could be, in the end, what the party might just need as a circuit breaker. Winston could remain, perhaps as a powerful party president and co-leader so that the party can retain the support of its mainly blue-rinse set, elderly, Muldoonist-leaning electoral base. A new leader and perhaps new policy direction, meanwhile, could help attract the support of a new generation of older voters contained in the rising number of 'baby boomers' who are now beginning to enter retirement. A strategy that seeks out the votes of this group to offset the natural attrition that will occur amongst the 75-plus age group as they die off could reap dividends for New Zealand First. Over time, as disillusionment with any long-term National Government grows, this group of mainly middle class retirees who might be reluctant to give their votes to the Left parties of Labour, the Greens and the Alliance, could see a revamped, modern and Ron Mark-Winston Peters co-led NZ First as a viable alternative coalition partner to either National or Labour once again.

However, what it will take on the part of New Zealand First is the emergence of a less recalcitrant, more honest Winston Peters whose combative side is smoothed over. If Peters can do the political makeover of the new century, then he, like Winston Churchill, can make a comeback with a sovereigntist message that in the current economic crisis could be music to the ears of a new generation of older, concerned conservative kiwis whose savings are reducing with every interest rate cut and finance company failure. If on the other hand, Winston, as per usual, fails to heed the advice of the much derided commentariat, then he is dooming himself, once and for all, to political obscurity.

Therefore, this Saturday could be his first, best and last chance to shine.