The ANZ New Zealand job advertisement series, which sums newspaper and internet ads, fell 2.3 percent in December (s.a.), confirming a gently declining trend. The seasonally adjusted series has fallen in three of the last four months.

� The monthly fall was driven by a 4.5 percent fall in newspaper listings, while internet advertising also fell 1.8 percent (both s.a.). Our "composite" total, which gives a heavier weighting to newspaper ads and down-weights internet ads, resulting in a closer (inverted) indicator for unemployment, fell 3.2 percent (s.a.).

� Our 3-month average "composite" job ads series has been steadily dropping since July. It points to an improving unemployment rate in the near term but deterioration thereafter.

� On a regional basis, Canterbury total ads (unweighted sum) were the strongest, rising 2.5 percent. Wellington fell 7.5 percent, and Auckland fell 2.0 percent.

� Our unemployment direction index, which aggregates a range of monthly labour market indicators including job ads, is still on the right side of the ledger (below zero) but the contemporaneous components are all pointing in the wrong direction, suggesting we are at a turning point.