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Currency

Kiwi at risk ahead of CPI and Dairy auction

By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Australian employment will be the focus for AUD today. Markets are expecting further softness, although there is some chance of an upside surprise given volatility in the data. Chinese March trade data should also lend a hand to support risk.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The FOMC minutes should provide some support to the USD and we would expect markets to differentiate currencies today after broad based USD weakness overnight. Australian home loans data may provide a catalyst. RATES: Kiwi rates are likely to open unchanged.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Business opinion is the focus today with updates setting direction for NZD, AUD and USD. JPY will be driven by the BOJ decision later this afternoon, where markets are expecting a tweak to policy.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD continued its steady slide lower, falling by 0.4% against the USD, to 0.8540.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD was the worst performing G10 currency overnight, shunting 1.0% lower against the USD, to 0.8560 this morning.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Global service sector PMIs will drive currencies, with the ECB a specific driver of the EUR. Action by the ECB would be an important signal for the region and US service sector employment is closely followed.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD followed the AUD in an overall drift lower yesterday, with few outright drivers. The NZD/USD is 0.2% lower at 0.8646.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is little to change existing themes and ranges today, with only minor focus on US ADP employment and minor Australian and NZ data. RATES: Kiwi rates are likely to open unchanged. REVIEW

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD finished the week with somewhat of a whimper, falling 0.1% against the USD to 0.8660. However, in the context of an outstanding week, a bit of profit-taking seems understandable. Last week was the NZD’s strongest since the first week of February.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Plenty of data to drive currencies this week. We would not expect NZ data to change the picture of overall domestic strength and all eyes will be on US and global activity data culminating in US payrolls Friday.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The NZ trade balance is unlikely to change the theme of NZD strength today, with expectations for a $600m surplus. Tonight’s third read of US Q4 GDP is unlikely to contain too many surprises.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets are likely to watch NZD and AUD today with a string of NZD releases and the RBA Financial Stability Review and speech by Governor Stevens. Overnight US data will again be the focus setting USD direction.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD saw a lacklustre trading session for the most part, but is higher this morning after liquidity-inspired USD move lower.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: With global growth underwhelming last night, markets will continue to vacillate taking direction from German IFO confidence, US consumer confidence and the US Richmond Fed.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Global activity indicators will be the clear driver of currencies today. Updates from China, Europe and the US should, if forecasts are met, lead to EUR and USD buying interest.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD ended the week around 0.8540, a little below its Friday intra-night highs.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZ data today shouldn’t change the strong domestic story for NZ, which will keep NZD supported. Globally it is fairly quiet on the data front and a consolidation into the end of the week looks likely.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD was little changed ahead of the FOMC meeting this morning, but has dropped sharply following that release.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZ Q4 current account shouldn’t change the picture of domestic strength, while global markets await tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The UK Budget and employment report will also be a currency market focus.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD has been the main beneficiary from a risk rally stemming from Russia’s indication that it does not intend on claiming further territory in Ukraine (see Majors).

Headwinds remain for the NZ dollar

By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD was a touch softer on Friday, as muted risk sentiment pervaded. The NZD/USD ended the week at 0.8530.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The markets will remain uncertain as they digest the diplomatic response to the Crimean referendum result to join Russia. We also have to watch for RMB weakness spilling over, as China widens the trading band.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is little new fundamental data today. NZ Business PMI shouldn’t impact NZD this morning with Chinese and Ukraine sentiment expected to dominate the session, implying further NZD gains will be difficult.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD/USD sits above 0.8480 this morning as the market awaits the RBNZ’s meeting today. In the absence of key data releases over the past 24-hours the NZD has traded a path between 0.8440 and 0.8490, sitting toward the upper end of this range at present.

BNZ Daily Markets Wrap and Strategy

NZD The NZD has maintained a fairly tight range over the past 24-hours, sitting just below 0.8470 currently.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZ data (REINZ, card spending and ANZ Truckometer) should not impact NZD today, but Australian Business confidence and conditions should arrest the climb in NZD/AUD, also keep an eye on the BOJ and PBOC.

ANZ NZ Morning Brief

OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is little to directly impact the currency today and the Asian session should be dominated by weaker Chinese data and evidence of some escalation in Ukraine. RATES: Expect NZ rates to be biased higher following global moves. REVIEW

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