OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The RBA is not expected to change policy, but there are risks for language changes that support AUD. USD should find demand with consensus forecasts that the ISM survey will maintain elevated levels.
NZD The NZD slipped along with most of the majors against the USD on Friday, dipping 0.3% to 0.8360. That puts NZD/USD smack in the middle of the 0.8300-0.8420 range it largely kept through late August.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets may be looking for a quiet session with the US out for Labor Day. However, NZD will be driven by Q2 terms of trade, and PMIs from China, Europe and the UK will impact other currencies.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: USD will be driven by the second release of US Q2 GDP, and there is the potential for revisions. In Europe, German and Spanish CPI will be watched for signals as to the potential for ECB action next week.
By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: USD will find some support today after the message from Yellen remained unchanged. GBP, JPY, and EUR should remain under pressure. The US Services PMI and German IFO are the main data prints out tonight.
NZD The NZD/USD ended the week just below 0.8410.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Currency markets have one focus today and that is the speech by FOMC chair Yellen at 2am Saturday. Markets should continue to reduce risk into this event, but should also watch ECB and BoE speeches.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Attention will turn to global activity indicators today. HSBC China PMI and NZ data (ANZ job ads, migration, consumer confidence, and card spending), along with flash PMIs in Europe and US will set direction.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZD/AUD may get a catalyst to break support from RBA Steven's semi-annual testimony today. Overnight, attention will firmly be on central bankers with BoE minutes and FOMC minutes scrutinised for signals.
NZD The NZD/USD traded a tight range on Friday, to end the week only slightly lower, just below 0.8490.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: GBP should gain some support today from comments from BoE Governor Carney, while geopolitics will likely drive global sentiment and the USD. RATES: Local rates are likely to open under downward pressure given global moves on Friday night. REVIEW
NZD The NZD was the outperformer amongst the majors overnight, with NZD/USD up 0.4% to 0.8490.
NZD The NZD/USD tested 0.8400 yesterday, but has since rebounded to 0.8440, down 0.2% for the day.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets will have a keen eye on the Chinese data to confirm positive sentiment, while Q2 GDP for JPY will drive JPY crosses. GBP has downside risks from the July employment report and BoE inflation report.
By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: EUR is unlikely to find support from German confidence data, with it forecast to decline further. USD holdings will be looking for improvements to the hiring and quit rates in the JOLTs report.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets will be relatively quiet today, with little data to note. US FOMC vice chairman Stanley Fischer delivers a speech "The Great Recession: Moving Ahead" in Stockholm, which will be of interest to markets.
By Betty Lam (Sales Trader, CMC Markets) Embracing another session of mixed-bag leads offshore, local shares spent most of the morning swinging between mild gains and losses, before dipping into double-digit red dragged down by the financials which were down by over 0.5% as a sector.
NZD The NZD/USD sits at a similar level to yesterday morning, at 0.8480, at present.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: We would expect USD to find a cautious bid, as markets search for answers to the USD sell off. Australian employment will drive NZD/AUD, while the ECB should keep EUR capped overnight.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: New Zealand Q2 employment is the next NZD event, markets will look to sell any strength it generates, and punish any weakness. British industrial production has lagged other indicators and may pressure GBP.
NZD The NZD was whipsawed by a strong US GDP number and a mixed FOMC statement, but remains slightly weaker against the USD at 0.8490.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The USD will continue to drive currency direction, and we expect it to remain bid as we await payrolls and ISM data on Friday night. US jobless claims and employment costs will dictate direction tonight.
NZD The NZD was the worst performing major currency, falling 0.6% against the USD on the back of a lower milk payout forecast and stronger US data. NZD/USD hovers just below the 0.8500 mark this morning.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Market attention switches to the USD tonight, with Q2 GDP and the FOMC to drive market direction. Markets have been wary of buying USD ahead of tonight's headline risk. If expectations are met, USD should rally.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Another relatively quiet day is expected as markets await US Q2 GDP and the FOMC on Wednesday night. We expect NZD/USD to remain under pressure, but profit taking to provide support near to 0.85.
NZD The NZD continued to step lower on Friday, weakening against the USD in line with other major currencies. NZD/USD closed 0.2% softer just above 0.8550.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The week starts quietly, with no data from Australia, New Zealand or Asia expected today. The Markit Services PMI from the US will be a minor release of note as markets await larger US data releases.
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