NZD The NZD/USD was the strongest performing major currency on Friday, which is a bizarre result after a strong US jobs report.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets will likely continue post-Payrolls moves, supporting NZD. The focus this week is mostly on Australasia with NZ, AU, and Chinese data overshadowed only by the ECB, where policy action is being debated.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets are likely to continue in a quiet range ahead of the payrolls release tonight. Expectations are for a strong release with any disappointment allowing NZD to test range highs. RATES: Expect NZ interest rates to open unchanged to lower following US moves.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The US April ISM survey keeps attention on USD. Indicators suggest this will increase as forecast. Manufacturing PMIs from China and the UK should also show growth, but NZD should remain in demand.
NZD The NZD/USD pushed higher in the early hours of this morning, in the backdrop of a weak USD. It sits at 0.8620 this morning.
By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The RBNZ is not expected to move markets this morning. Our expectation is for a succinct statement, and a reiteration that NZD strength is not sustainable in the long run. RATES: Expect Kiwi rates to open 1-2 basis points lower across the curve. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Global PMIs are expected to show a benign environment conducive to a continued drift into "carry trades". The AUD could be the outperformer if ANZ’s above consensus CPI expectation eventuates.
NZD The NZD is 0.3% weaker against the USD this morning, sitting at 0.8630.
NZD The NZD is broadly weaker this morning, having made gains only against the AUD overnight. The NZD/USD is 0.5% lower at 0.8640.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Q1 NZ CPI is expected to tick higher, supporting NZD. Q1 GDP from China will drive global sentiment (ANZ 7.2%). GBP has the employment report; CAD the BOC; and there are 4 Fed speakers and the Beige Book.
By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Australian employment will be the focus for AUD today. Markets are expecting further softness, although there is some chance of an upside surprise given volatility in the data. Chinese March trade data should also lend a hand to support risk.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The FOMC minutes should provide some support to the USD and we would expect markets to differentiate currencies today after broad based USD weakness overnight. Australian home loans data may provide a catalyst. RATES: Kiwi rates are likely to open unchanged.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Business opinion is the focus today with updates setting direction for NZD, AUD and USD. JPY will be driven by the BOJ decision later this afternoon, where markets are expecting a tweak to policy.
NZD The NZD continued its steady slide lower, falling by 0.4% against the USD, to 0.8540.
NZD The NZD was the worst performing G10 currency overnight, shunting 1.0% lower against the USD, to 0.8560 this morning.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Global service sector PMIs will drive currencies, with the ECB a specific driver of the EUR. Action by the ECB would be an important signal for the region and US service sector employment is closely followed.
NZD The NZD followed the AUD in an overall drift lower yesterday, with few outright drivers. The NZD/USD is 0.2% lower at 0.8646.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is little to change existing themes and ranges today, with only minor focus on US ADP employment and minor Australian and NZ data. RATES: Kiwi rates are likely to open unchanged. REVIEW
NZD The NZD finished the week with somewhat of a whimper, falling 0.1% against the USD to 0.8660. However, in the context of an outstanding week, a bit of profit-taking seems understandable. Last week was the NZD’s strongest since the first week of February.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Plenty of data to drive currencies this week. We would not expect NZ data to change the picture of overall domestic strength and all eyes will be on US and global activity data culminating in US payrolls Friday.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The NZ trade balance is unlikely to change the theme of NZD strength today, with expectations for a $600m surplus. Tonight’s third read of US Q4 GDP is unlikely to contain too many surprises.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets are likely to watch NZD and AUD today with a string of NZD releases and the RBA Financial Stability Review and speech by Governor Stevens. Overnight US data will again be the focus setting USD direction.
NZD The NZD saw a lacklustre trading session for the most part, but is higher this morning after liquidity-inspired USD move lower.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: With global growth underwhelming last night, markets will continue to vacillate taking direction from German IFO confidence, US consumer confidence and the US Richmond Fed.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Global activity indicators will be the clear driver of currencies today. Updates from China, Europe and the US should, if forecasts are met, lead to EUR and USD buying interest.
NZD The NZD ended the week around 0.8540, a little below its Friday intra-night highs.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZ data today shouldn’t change the strong domestic story for NZ, which will keep NZD supported. Globally it is fairly quiet on the data front and a consolidation into the end of the week looks likely.
NZD The NZD was little changed ahead of the FOMC meeting this morning, but has dropped sharply following that release.
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