OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Australian employment report today should introduce some volatility to the market, but it is unlikely to change AUD and NZD currency trends.
NZD The NZD has recouped nearly all of its Monday morning losses over the past 24 hours. The NZD/USD and NZD/AUD are currently trading at 0.7810 and 0.8760, respectively - pretty close to where they were prior to the weekend’s "dirty pipe" news.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The market is pricing an interest rate cut from the RBA at 16:30 today and until then we are likely to have a quiet session. GBP is the focus overnight with the July GDP estimate and production releases.
NZD As expected, the NZD has been belted on the open this morning, as currency markets react to the weekend’s "dirty pipe’’ news.
NZD After dribbling lower for much of this week, this morning’s FOMC Statement has thrown the NZD/USD something of a lifeline. USD selling in the wake of the Statement has the kiwi back up and sniffing around the 0.8000 mark.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The focus today will be on global activity data in the form of PMI’s from China, Europe and the US. Also of importance for EUR and GBP are BOE and ECB meetings with forward guidance the focus.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The focus is on the USD today. Q2 GDP/PCE inflation, Chicago PMI, ADP employment and the FOMC will dominate month end. There is also an expectation for USD selling due to month end portfolio rebalancing. RATES: Local rates are expected to open unchanged.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: A speech by RBA Governor Stevens at 15:05 today has the potential to lift AUD, should it dampen expectations for RBA cuts. US consumer confidence tonight could add to USD demand.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The data this week is mostly USD focused and in the second half of the week. Prepositioning could add to volatility in the first half of the week with data dependency high in currency markets.
NZD The NZD/USD traded a tight range on Friday, ending the week at 0.8090.
NZD The NZD has performed head and shoulders above its peers over the past 24-hours. The NZD/USD sits around 0.8090 this morning.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Global PMIs should drive markets today. There are flash/advance releases from China, Europe and the US. The impact of any surprise from Australian CPI will most likely be seen in NZD/AUD.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Questions over China growth remain the focus for Asia and should keep the topside capped today. Overnight EU consumer confidence and US Richmond Fed could provide volatility, although strength is expected.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Focus now returns to economic data with little news expected from day two of Bernanke’s testimony to Congress. ANZ NZ consumer confidence, UK retail sales and the Philadelphia Fed survey will drive currencies today.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is minimal Asian data today and we expect a relatively quiet session as markets wait for Bernanke’s testimony to Congress tonight. GBP may also be in focus with the first BOE minutes from Governor Carney. RATES: Kiwi rates are likely to open unchanged.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Chinese trade data today could temper AUD and NZD gains as the risks are for a weaker number. Markets are likely to pause at current levels as we await the FOMC minutes and Chairman Bernanke’s speech tonight.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: We have a quieter week for currencies this week. NZ QSBO, Australian employment, and the obligatory US focus of FOMC minutes and Bernanke speaking on Thursday morning are the likely drivers. Existing themes of USD strength are unlikely to change this week.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: With the US out for Independence Day and little for markets to focus on until payrolls tonight, we expect a very quiet day. NZD/EUR and NZD/GBP are likely to see the most interest, with reasons to go higher.
NZD Last week was all about consolidation for the NZD.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Focus is on global activity indicators to start a busy week. June PMI results from China, Asia minor, Europe and the US will drive currencies. Continued global activity improvements would likely drive USD higher.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: A quieter day today with little to move markets, until the final reads of Q1 US GDP and personal consumption. RATES: NZ rates are expected to open unchanged. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Currencies should continue to consolidate as data is light today. Minor Fed surveys (Dallas and Chicago) and a speech from non-voting Fed hawk Fisher will be the focus. German IFO is forecast to be unchanged.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: A lack of US data may signal a quieter session. ANZ NZ consumer confidence is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the currency. A speech by BOJ governor Kuroda may impact USD/JPY and hence NZD/JPY.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets will continue to focus on three broad drivers this week: the FOMC for the USD theme, global flash PMIs for the activity theme, and a speech by BOJ Kuroda for the "Abenomics" theme. RATES: Likely to open with a bias lower given global moves.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Keep an eye on NZ non-resident bond holdings for signs of health of foreign portfolio flows. Otherwise, US data will remain the driver with industrial production, Michigan confidence and the current account.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is potential for a mildly optimistic RBNZ tone today, which would be supportive NZD. However the NZD has not been trading on NZ fundamentals and will quickly revert to following global issues.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Weaker Chinese trade, inflation and money aggregates data over the weekend should ensure NZD and AUD remain under pressure. RATES: NZ yields will open under upward pressure after overnight moves. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Volatility is set to continue as the markets await US payrolls. A dearth of liquidity in late New York will frighten some participants out of positioning making today volatile. RATES: Yields will open lower again today after overnight moves. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Nothing notable is expected from the BOE or ECB meetings tonight, with ANZ expecting both to remain with current policy settings. Australian trade balance in the Asian session could confirm NZD/AUD strength.
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