OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Central banks will drive currencies today. Watch: the BOJ meeting and press conference (JPY); BOE minutes (GBP); FOMC minutes and Bernanke testimony (USD). Liquidity taps are expected to remain open.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The focus will remain on the US data this week. We expect global activity indicators to remain slow but steady. The key question for currencies continues to be: growth or defensive portfolio allocation?
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The NZ Budget today is expected to be a strong contrast to Tuesday’s Australian Budget. Overnight, further US data will be the focus with the Philadelphia Fed and housing data the focus for USD bulls.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: There is little to change markets trends today, but if the Chinese monthly data dump is very weak (unlikely, given recent strength), this might cause markets to question their rotation from defensive to growth.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Once the dust settles, there is little in the way of news flow to move markets. Having snapped lower, markets are likely to be nervous and jumpy, influenced by positioning and technicals, which generally point to AUD and NZD weakness persisting today.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Both Australia and NZ release employment numbers and both releases have been very volatile of late. We would advise looking through any outlier results from today’s numbers as the RBNZ indicated it would.
NZD The NZD/USD has traded a very steady path over the past 24-hours, despite quite a lot of movement in a number of its peers. It trades around 0.8500 this morning.
NZD The NZD was amongst the weakest performers over the past 24-hours. The NZD/USD trades around 0.8490 this morning.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Markets will watch the Chinese PMI, US ISM and FOMC meetings for direction today. The key will be the contraction/expansion line for the PMI/ISM and how much emphasis the Fed places on the weaker data. RATES: We expect local rates to open broadly unchanged.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Expect a weaker NZD to begin the trading week, with Asian demand taking a breather with Japan on holiday, and focus turning elsewhere for currency markets. RATES: Expect local rates to open with a bias to the downside. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The NZ trade balance this morning and Bank of Japan meeting will impact general NZD sentiment with US Q1 GDP driving activity overnight. Markets expect a strong 3% growth for Q1. NZD should remain strong.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: We expect no lasting currency impact from today’s RBNZ OCR Review and it seems unlikely AUD CPI will surprise. German IFO weakness looks priced. RATES: NZ rates are expected to open broadly unchanged. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Politics will drive currencies with G20 Finance Ministers and EU officials speaking in Washington. Italy has the presidential ballot process. If the recent better run continues, ANZ Consumer Confidence could provide support for NZD in a weaker day.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Chinese Q1 GDP and monthly data is likely to drive the market today. With concerns being raised over global growth, weakness will prompt the biggest reaction. RATES: Expect NZ rates to open lower in line with global moves. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: A quieter day, with NZ non-resident bond holdings for March interesting but unlikely to be market moving. Singapore Q1 GDP and MAS monetary policy meeting may provide some interest for currency markets. Overnight JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Q1 earnings will be watched.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZ Q1 QSBO is likely to be upbeat this morning (10am) especially when compared to the (expected to be) more muted NAB business conditions from Australia. German current account and trade balances should be strong confirming northern Europe’s strength.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: NZD should remain elevated but stable as we enter a quieter week on the global data front. Familiar ranges should dominate in NZD. However, JPY should continue to weaken, and EUR may break ranges.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: US payrolls tonight could move markets, but the impact of the BOJ is likely to continue to reverberate through currency markets. RATES: NZ interest rates will open lower today, especially the bonds. REVIEW
NZD The NZD has been the strongest performer of its peers over the past 24-hours. It sits at 0.8420 currently.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The performance of the larger parts of the Chinese and US economies is the focus with non-manufacturing PMI/ISM out. We expect these to show sustained growth in those economies keeping NZD supported.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: A fairly quiet end to the week is expected. However, German retail sales and the third read of US Q4 GDP are worth watching tonight. Month-end rebalancing flows are expected to be mildly USD negative.
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OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Nothing exciting to drive the currency today, so consolidation is expected. Watch German IFO, French Business confidence and Cyprus. RATES: Kiwi rates are likely to open slightly lower in line with global moves. REVIEW
NZD A more cautious attitude towards ‘risk’ continues to weigh on the NZD as offshore markets fret about Cyprus.
NZD The NZD recovered from its post-RBNZ fall on Friday night, to close at 0.8280.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: With relatively little data today, we would expect consolidation of recent moves with the traditional mild reversion. BOJ confirmation process could add volatility as could the Italian reconvening of Parliament.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: The market is short NZD expecting the RBNZ to "talk" the dollar down, which conversely risks a squeeze if they don’t. Australian employment could be strong keeping pressure on NZD/AUD.
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: FX markets should be relatively quiet today. However there is scope for volatility with the PBOC Governor’s speaking and US retail sales being particular catalysts. RATES: Local rates will open lower following global moves overnight. REVIEW
OUTLOOK CURRENCY: Current ranges look set to persist, but Chinese trade data could provide volatility in Asian session with German Industrial Production and US non-farm payrolls potential catalysts for overnight.
NZD NZD (along with AUD and NOK) are showing the most resilience to US dollar strength but is still lower on the night. The retreat from 0.8350 seems to have defined the immediate range for the NZD.
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