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ANZ Commodity Price Index: NZD windfall

The ANZ Commodity Price Index dipped 0.3% m/m in October (+10% y/y). ANZ Senior Economist Phil Borkin said, "The fall was largely attributable to the dairy group, where all components fell. All other major groups lifted although there were differences at the subcomponent level."

Dollar strength returns

By Michael McCarthy (chief market strategist, CMC Markets)

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - BoE surprised by keeping rates on hold, but most of the Committee expect easing at the4 August meeting. - RBNZ gets some currency follow through, but where to from here? OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Nigel Farage, UKIP leader and prominent figurehead in the Brexit campaign, resigned as party leader. - Equities gave back some recent ground, but markets were quiet give the Independence Day holiday in the US. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - The Brexit referendum result sparked severe market reactions, although some sharp moves moderated to a degree on Friday night.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Financial market sentiment remained supported in the run-up to the Brexit vote. - Bookies put Brexit odds at about 25%; polls around 50%. - US home sales rose 1.8% m/m to the highest level in nine years. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Yellen did not stray too far from last week’s outlook, erring on the side of caution. - Brexit polls continue to suggest it is too close to call.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Brexit fears continued to weigh heavily on market sentiment with the yield on the 10-yr bund falling to a new record low of -2.5 bps and the dollar strengthening (yen excepted).

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Yellen and the FOMC strike a more dovish tone; USD weakens. - Risk sentiment was stronger overnight, with equities higher before the Fed. The response to the Fed decision itself was fairly muted.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - The USD regained some ground ahead of next week’s crucial FOMC meeting, but the probability of a July rate hike remained stable at 18%

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - The ECB kept rates on hold with neutral changes to forecasts - The OPEC meeting failed to come to an agreement - oil dropped 2% before rebounding to positive territory on lower inventories. - ADP employment matched expectations. NZD still supported.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - US manufacturing data stronger but the overall data pulse overnight was generally more neutral. Beige Book elicits a yawn from markets. - USD slips amidst yen strength. NZD firm. - GDT prices rise but whole milk powder prices down. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - A very quiet overnight session given public holidays in the US and UK. - European equities hit a one month high on Friday’s rate hike hint from Yellen. Fed's Bullard says global markets seem "well-prepared" for a summer rate hike.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Euro area March industrial production fell 0.8% m/m following February’s downwardly revised 1.2% drop. - FOMC’s Mester said inflation has moved higher and is cautious about taking inflation expectations from market measures.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - The euro weakened despite many European centres being closed for Ascension Thursday. - ECB’s Mersch said the effectiveness of negative interest rates is probably overstated.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Another risk-off night for equities, but other markets were steadier. - Final composite PMI data for Europe and the US suggests growth has started Q2 on a reasonable footing. - ECB sources were reported to say that the ECB is on hold until at least September.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - US ISM manufacturing came in below expectations, but remained in expansion territory (50.8). There was a spike in ISM prices paid to 59.0 from 51.5.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Bond yields continued to push higher despite misses to the downside on US durable goods and consumer confidence. - The US dollar was under modest downward pressure, which led to a broad-based rally in commodity prices. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - USD falls further sparking a broad-based rally in commodity prices. - Dairy prices rise, with GDT-TWI up 3.8%. The rise was led by whole milk powder 7.5%.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - The Fed’s Rosengren (FOMC voter) said he was surprised the market’s expected path for fed funds was so low and that if the data remains okay the Fed may have to hike sooner than the market thinks.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - US ADP report for March points to another robust NFP on Friday. - Fed’s Evans backs more dovish FOMC ‘dot plots’. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - The Federal Reserve sounded a more dovish tone than anticipated by the market, taking two (of four) hikes out of the 2016 "dot plot" on global risks. Focus now turns to Yellen’s press conference, which is underway. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - There was risk-off sentiment overnight driven by weakness in the Asian session/data (Chinese February trade data and downgrade to Japanese Q4 growth) and positioning.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - China eases RRR by 50bps to 17% amid capital outflows and softening economic activity. - Euro area falls back into deflation, increasing pressure on the ECB to ease policy next week. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - US durable goods orders rebound strongly in January, tentatively boding well for business investment trends in Q1. - Market sentiment whippy although overall action more settled.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - US data flow disappoints, with consumer confidence softening in February. - The Saudi oil minister rules out crude production cuts, while the Iranian oil minister calls the January production freeze "ridiculous," seeing oil prices fall around 4-5%. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Yesterday’s weak Chinese manufacturing PMI and the further undershoot in US data weighed on equity market sentiment. - The recent recovery in oil prices faltered, although this wasn’t enough to stop a modest fixed income sell-off. OUTLOOK

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - BoJ unexpectedly cut rates by 20bp to -0.1% to counter downside risks to growth and inflation. - US Q4 GDP slows to 0.7% q/q saar but private consumption stronger at 2.2% q/q saar.

NZ Morning Focus

HIGHLIGHTS - Oil prices reach highest level since 6 January in choppy trade on Saudi and Russian production comments. - Big miss on US durable goods reflects weakness in manufacturing and oil, and bring more questions over path for the Fed. USD on the back foot. OUTLOOK

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